| August 4, 2009 Thoughts on Global Warming |
I hear so much on this global warming stuff, it makes my head spin. So many people with the word “scientist” attached to their name have released report, after report, after report. I hear so many arguments that say that global warming is coming to kill us all, but I hear just as many arguments that say it’s all baloney and we are idiots for even talking about it.
My personal thoughts are that I don’t think we can ever really know for sure. There are so many variables when it comes to the thermodynamic behavior of the planet, and we only have a few years of truly good data that we are trying to interpolate into hundreds and thousands of years into the past and future. With that many variables and that many uncertainties, you can conclude whatever the hell you want with the data. If you want the data to conclude that global warming exists, you can do that. If you want the data to conclude that it does not exist, you can do that too.
The real problem is that the “solution” to the hypothetical problem, this whole cap and trade business, is so insane that you have to be crazy if you want to implement it. This isn’t like reducing sulfur to reduce the effects of acid rain, or installing catalytic converters on cars to reduce smog formation. This is quite literally a tax on every single item that you use or purchase. No matter how eco-friendly you try to be, if you are getting it from any kind of store, somebody put it on a truck and drove there, contributing to the evil carbon dioxide cloud that is coming to destroy us all.
Reducing CO2 output is going to cost America, the global community, an uncanny sum of money. I have heard estimates as high as a 23 trillion dollar loss of economic output. Twenty three trillion dollars. Of course, congress is convinced that it’s only going to cost each American resident $300 a year. For a population of 300 million, that’s 90 billion dollars.
Either way, I’m out at least two months worth of sandwiches from the cafeteria. The reality is probably somewhere in between those two numbers, but with 90 billion on the low end and 23 trillion on the high end, I don’t like our odds.
But, let’s just forget all this gobbledygook for a second. Forget the numbers, and let’s just decide on whether or not it’s worth exasperating a global economic slowdown for the sake of saving Hollywood’s Malibu estates from rising sea levels.
As I see it, we need to be extremely sure about global warming before we drive in the final nail on the coffin for our economy. Specifically, we need to be certain on at least four issues.
If we’re not sure about this, then everything else is pointless. The idea behind an increasing thermal barrier increasing temperatures is sound, but once again, there are so many more variables. How does increasing CO2 compare to increasing water vapor? How does it compare to changes in solar energy output? What ever happened to that damn ozone layer? When I was a kid, we weren’t supposed to use aerosol cans because that was making a hole in the atmosphere. Now we have too much atmosphere? Which one am I supposed to believe. Make up your mind hippies!!!
I was watching a show the other day that stated that even though CO2 levels have risen over the past decade, global temperatures have dropped. A global warming supporter attempted to debunk this data by saying that this data doesn’t count because solar energy output has been lower this decade than the previous. Well, I’m sorry, but if solar output has a much greater impact on global temperatures than CO2 levels, why the hell are we focusing on CO2??
Stating it another way, lets think about cars. If you are driving around town on a warm summer day, you can get greater gas mileage by turning off you’re A/C and rolling down the windows. If you try that trick on the highway, you will find that the increased wind resistance from rolling down the windows has a much greater impact on gas mileage than the additional work the car engine has to do to run the A/C compressor. I learned that one hard way after spending two sweat-drenched hours traveling from Atlanta to Augusta only to find that my fuel economy was diminished.
If you just focus in on the work the engine does running the air compressor, like I did, you miss the fact wind resistance affects fuel economy. The result was that I had a sweat stained shirt, a stinky car, and I didn’t reap one ounce of benefit.
As I stated earlier in this document, I have heard many people say that CO2 levels are the determining factor for global temperatures. I have heard just as many people say that CO2 levels play a very small roll in determining global temperatures. Despite what some of the pinheads in DC believe, global warming is far from settled science. It makes no sense to jeopardize trillions of dollars of economic output if we’re not even sure we understand the root cause of the problem.
I hate to tell you guys, but virtually much every animal on the planet exhales CO2. Sorry. If you want to decrease CO2 production, you could technically do so by clubbing baby seals.
I am not advocating clubbing baby seals; they are too cute and fuzzy. But polar bears eat baby seals, so maybe we should be clubbing them? That would reduce the CO2 output of polar bears, and would prevent baby seals from being eaten! But then baby seals might run rampant, and that would just increase their CO2 production. Perhaps species extinction isn’t the most reliable route here.
But, seriously, volcanoes spew greenhouse gasses, animals spew green house gasses, some out of both ends, there is plenty of green house gas production to go around. If our industry isn’t a leading contributing factor to CO2 production, why should we hurt ourselves by limiting it?
So, again, if we’re not sure about this, there is no point in killing our economy.
Also, despite the seal/polar bear analogy, I do not advocate the clubbing of any members of the animal kingdom to curb global warming.
Mass extinction, rising sea levels, and a never ending supply of hurricanes. These are just a few of the promises we’ve been told about global warming. But how can we be so damn sure about all this?
In 2008, there was a crap-ton of major hurricanes that smacked the gulf coast. This year, it’s been hot as hell down here, and there hasn’t been one damn tropical storm in the Atlantic or the Gulf, at least not yet. And I am NOT complaining about that.
Why the lull in activity? Because the trade winds in the upper atmosphere plus a bunch of other words that only weathermen know and low and be hold not one damn storm. If these geniuses can’t even tell us if it’s going to rain tomorrow, why are we supposed to believe them when they tell us what the weather is going to be like 200 years from now?
I don’t think we can accurately predict what exactly is going to happen, no matter what we do. The United Nations predicts some rise in sea levels, some guys up in MIT predict something else, and Al Gore’s movie predicts something complete different. We can’t be sure what’s going to happen until it happens. We have had a list of worst case scenarios continually shoved down our throats to the point where they are regarded as scientific fact, rather than a theory of the worst case scenario.
I, personally, am hoping something wonderful will happen. Specifically, I am hoping bald men, like myself, will spontaneously regenerate hair due to climate change, but I’m not holding my breath over it. A more likely scenario is that dinosaurs begin to roam the earth once again.
The other three issues are up for debate, but the answer to this question is a big fat hairy NO. In 2008, China became the world’s number one producer of greenhouse gasses. Both China an India have stated that they either don’t believe in global warming, or they just don’t care.
No matter what we do, their CO2 emissions, are set to increase for the foreseeable future. Passing the cap and trade legislation in this country will only succeed at harming American industry, nothing more. Well, I guess it would also put China on the fast track to becoming the dominant super power.
Even if you buy into global warming hook line and sinker, this ought to be a deal killer. If we’re all doomed anyway, why not allow our industry to flourish? It reminds me of the end of the third “Naked Gun” movie. The bad guy gets the bomb and declares he’s going to blow everybody up. In response to this, the police chief (I think that’s what he was) declares,
“Well, if I’m going out, I’m going out happy!”
He then proceeds to plant a big wet smackeroo on the bombshell babe next to him.
If we have to go out, let’s go out happy. Hell, maybe good old American ingenuity will come up with ways to lessen the effect global warming would have on all of us, or to prevent it all together.
But I know one thing for sure; we’re going nowhere if we tie both hands behind our back.
The cap and trade, carbon tax, however you want to do it, it will result in a massive tax increase, and a cataclysmic burden on American industry. Especially during this time of an economic downturn, it is incredibly stupid to pass such a restrictive measure.
Unless we are absolutely sure that:
-Producing CO2 will cause a dramatic rise on global temperatures
-The CO2 production is man made
-The expected consequences of an increase in temperature are accurate
-And that this legislation will actually reverse the trend
we are just pissing in the wind. And believe me, from where I stand, our shoes are SOAKED with urine. Good thing I wear boots.
I have heard so many dissenting opinions on the causes and effects of global warming that I seriously doubt anybody who considers this settled science. Even if it was settled science, China and India would be dooming us to oblivion anyway. So we might as well allow the most industrial development we can, if for no other reason so we can develop ways to combat the ill effects of climate change.
But what the hell do I know.